Data Lab | Putin’s nuclear threats: What happens if Russia uses nukes?

The potential of a nuclear 'Armageddon'is at its greatest point in 60 years, UnitedStates President Joe Biden has warned as the Ukraine war drags on. A scenario in which nuclear weapons resulted in global annihilation is known as a nuclear 'Armageddon',also known as a 'nuclear holocaust.'

Nuclear weapons are considered weapons of mass destruction because they have the potential to produce significant radioactive effects. Only twice in history have nuclear weapons been used in actual combat, and both times were in 1945 when the US dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki to finish the Second World War.

As Russia asserted it would employ "all means" at its disposal to defend its borders, Biden claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin was "not joking." A "precedent" was set by the US utilising nuclear weapons during World War Two, according to Putin.

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Analysts, however, contend that rather than indicating a desire to deploy nuclear weapons, Putin's remarks should most likely be taken as a warning to other nations not to intensify their participation in Ukraine.

How many nuclear weapons does Russia possess?

The number of nuclear warheads in Russia is 5,977, according to the Federation of American Scientists, albeit this number includes roughly 1,500 that are decommissioned and scheduled for decommissioning. All nuclear weapon numbers are estimations.

The majority of the 4,500 or so surviving nuclear weapons—ballistic missiles or rockets with long-range targeting capabilities—are regarded as strategic nuclear weapons. These are the weapons that nuclear war is typically linked to.

The remaining nuclear weapons are smaller and less lethal and are intended for close-range combat on land or at sea. But this does not imply that Russia is prepared with thousands of long-range nuclear weapons.

Global comparison

Nine nations possess nuclear weapons: China, France, India, Israel (though not publicly acknowledged), North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, the US, and the UK.

According to experts, 1,500 Russian warheads are currently "deployed," that is, located at missile launchers. The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) has 191 signatories, including China, France, Russia, the US, and the UK.

As perthe agreement, they are required to decrease their arsenal of nuclear warheads and, in theory, are devoted to completely eliminating them.

Additionally, it has decreased the number of warheads kept in those nations since the 1970s and 1980s.

India, Israel, and Pakistan did not sign the NPT, and North Korea withdrew in 2003. Despite having nuclear warheads, Israel is the only one of the nine nations to have never openly admitted having a nuclear programme. There is no proof that Ukraine has tried to acquire nuclear weapons, despite President Putin's alleged threats.

What happens if Putin actually uses nuclear weapons?

According to Dr Manisha Chaurasiya, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Lady Shri Ram College for Women, Delhi University, even in the worst case scenario, wherein Russia actually uses nuclear weapons (which is highly unlikely), it would face not just international condemnation and sanctions,but something much greater than that.

“This would lead to a 'legitimate' response from the international community which would be not anything less than military action. That would be the last thing that Putin would want and Moscow has well in advance warned Western Europe and the United States to not intervene in the Ukraine war,” she adds.

“Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons seem to be empty unless Ukraine attacks Russian city centres or the 'counter value' targets through conventional weapons and thus forces Moscow to actually consider the nuclear weapon use, which again is highly unlikely."

Is Putin in a position to use nukes?

To answer that, Dr Chaurasiya says that Putin is not in a position to use nuclear weapons. “Not because someone is literally stopping him from pressing ‘the button’ but because we know that he is clever enough to not commit a politico-strategic suicide,” she adds.

“Given his experience as a political leader, he is well aware that the ‘use’ of a nuclear weapon would mean surrendering a crucial bargaining chip. Not the actual use but the threat to use nuclear weapons is what has made the nuke game work all through the Cold War. It is a tool of deterrence and a game of strategic brinkmanship. Nuclear weapon use does not benefit Russia in the given scenario in Ukraine.

"Ukraine is a neighbour and the present conflict is primarily about sovereignty over the territory, the disputed provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. The impact of the use of this technology of weapons would certainly fall on Russia as well as the very territories that Russia is aiming to fetch. Thus, it defeats any strategic gain,” continues Dr Chaurasiya.

The extent of nuclear weapons' destruction

Even the tiniest weapon has the potential to result in significant casualties and long-term effects.

In Hiroshima, Japan, during World War Two, a bomb with a 15-kiloton yield may have killed up to 146,000 people. And modern nuclear warheads have a maximum destructive power of 1,000 kilotons.

The immediate area of a nuclear explosion is expected to be relatively inhospitable. An intense flash is followed by a massive fireball and blast wave that can obliterate buildings and other objects for several kilometres.