US-China tensions over Taiwan may spiral towards nuclear escalation, study warns

A military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan could escalate into a nuclear confrontation, according to a new assessment by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Released ahead of the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore, the study warns that growing military rivalry in the Asia-Pacific is increasing the risks of strategic instability.

According to Reuters, the IISS said the world was approaching a new nuclear arms race ‘with the Asia-Pacific at its core’, as regional powers expand both nuclear arsenals and long-range conventional strike capabilities. The assessment noted that Taiwan remains one of the most sensitive flashpoints between Washington and Beijing.

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Nuclear Risks and Lack of ‘Guard Rails’

The 156-page assessment examined how a potential conflict over Taiwan could unfold across multiple military domains. It said Chinese forces would likely aim to keep US and allied militaries away from the region, while the United States would focus on strengthening Taiwan’s defences and resilience. The report warned that both sides could target critical command, communications, intelligence and surveillance systems in a conflict scenario. IISS researchers said there was ‘little public evidence’ that Washington and Beijing had agreed on clear safeguards or rules of engagement to prevent escalation.

Reuters reported that the study specifically warned the prospect of nuclear escalation would “continue to loom large” in any major US-China conflict involving Taiwan.

Taiwan at Centre of Strategic Tensions

China claims Taiwan as its territory and has never ruled out the use of force to take control of the island, although Beijing says it prefers “peaceful reunification”. Taiwan’s government rejects China’s sovereignty claims. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said the United States should handle Taiwan “with the utmost caution”, while defence ministry spokesperson Jiang Bin criticised the IISS report as being inconsistent with reality. The issue is expected to dominate discussions at the Shangri-La Dialogue from May 29 to 31, attended by defence ministers, military officials and security experts from across the world.

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Expanding Nuclear Competition in Asia-Pacific

The report also highlighted concerns over China’s rapidly expanding nuclear capabilities. A Pentagon assessment released in December projected that China could possess 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.

According to the Federation of American Scientists, Russia currently has around 4,400 active nuclear warheads, while the United States possesses approximately 3,700. China is estimated to have about 620 warheads, though analysts say Beijing’s arsenal remains highly secretive. IISS senior fellow Daniel Salisbury told Reuters that unlike the Cold War-era US-Soviet relationship, Washington and Beijing lack sustained nuclear risk-reduction talks, making crisis management significantly more difficult.